Recently, Vinitaly-Nomisma Wine Monitor, an Italian wine monitoring agency, published its forecast report for Italian wine exports in 2020.
Image courtesy of: ItalianWine.com
According to the report, Italian wine exports are expected to decline by 4.6% in 2020 compared to 2019 due to the ongoing impact of the New Crown epidemic, with annual exports reaching approximately €6.1 billion. Compared to other Old World wine countries, Italy is less affected by the New Crown epidemic. France"s 2020 wine exports are expected to decline by 17.9% to approximately €8.0 billion. Spain's wine exports in 2020 will decrease by about 5% to about €2.5 billion.
The report also provides a global forecast for 2020 wine exports, which are expected to decline by around 10.5% in 2020. The value of wine exports worldwide (according to national customs data) will shrink by more than €3 billion compared to 2019.
Italian wine exports had a strong momentum in January-February 2020, with a 15% increase compared to the same period in 2019. This is one of the reasons why Italy had the smallest annual export drop among Old World countries. The United States has imposed tariffs on some European wine products, the closure of cities due to the epidemic and other various reasons have hit wine exports from France and Spain. The high cost performance of Italian wines and more diversified sales channels have helped to reduce the losses of Italian wines in foreign markets.
At the same time, the report points out that many Italian small and medium-sized wine companies are actually losing much more than the industry average. Frequent in the large retail channel tended to be the large and medium-sized Italian companies, all of which maintained sales and sometimes even grew. In contrast, small and medium-sized companies, which are dominated by the retail and restaurant sectors, have generally seen their sales decline, in some cases by more than 50%.
The director of Vinitaly-Nomisma Wine Monitor also stressed that the decrease in imports of wine from some important international markets for Italian wine, combined with the decrease in domestic demand for wine in Italy, is likely to bring the risk of lower sales prices for Italian wine. vinitaly-Nomisma found in its survey interviews that there are already Wineries and companies are considering discount promotions to attract customers.
The report points out that in order to contain the losses in wine exports, Italian wine companies should increase their share of the two overseas markets, the U.S. and Germany, where the overall decline in wine imports in 2020 is five times greater than the decline in imports of Italian wine, demonstrating the strong resilience of Italian wine in the U.S. The report also points out that the markets where Italian wine exports will grow in 2020 are Switzerland and Sweden, which will grow by 4.3% and 2.2% respectively. In other markets, there will be decreases of varying degrees, including China (-32%), Japan (-15.1%), Canada (-7.7%), Australia (-3.8%) and Russia (-7.5%).