With consumers stocking up on alcoholic beverages in the run-up to the epidemic lockdown, many may wonder: is this wave of consumption helping to turn the tide in 2020?
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However, according to International Wine & Spirits Data Analytics (IWSR), after analyzing data from 20 major global alcohol consumption markets, including Australia, Brazil, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Spain, Thailand, Turkey and the United Kingdom, global alcohol consumption is predicted to decline by 8% in 2020, with The global travel retail channel, which was severely affected by the epidemic, will see a 68% drop in alcohol consumption in 2020.
The decline in global alcohol consumption is associated with multiple factors, including national and regional embargo measures due to the epidemic, the closure of supermarket channels where alcohol consumption is strongest, and prohibition policies by the governments of the countries concerned.
Spain is the most significantly affected by the embargo measures. 70% of Spain"s alcohol consumption is generated in the supermarket channel, and the embargo measures have directly curbed consumption in this channel, with Spain's alcohol consumption expected to decline by 16% in 2020. In contrast, Australia, where the majority of alcohol consumption is generated in non-supermarket channels, is less affected by the epidemic, with total alcohol consumption expected to decline by only 1% in 2020.
The prohibition policies introduced in countries such as South Africa and India to avoid the spread of the epidemic have also had a major impact on alcohol consumption in these countries, with South Africa's alcohol consumption in 2020 set to decline by 34% compared to 2019 and India's alcohol consumption in 2020 down by 22% year-on-year. China was one of the countries that recovered from the epidemic relatively quickly. In addition to the decline in alcohol consumption due to the blockade measures at the beginning of the epidemic, the recovery of developed e-commerce and supermarket channels directly drove the increase in China's alcohol consumption. In terms of data, China's liquor consumption declined by 9% in 2020, but the market was resilient with strong performance in the latter part of the year.
In an analysis of the UK market, IWSR found that still wines, low alcohol or non-alcoholic wines and some easy-drinking alcohol categories performed better than beer, vodka, gin and whisky.
For the time being, the winter epidemic is frequent, and the world market is expected to remain volatile in 2021, but China, which is relatively stable, may become a market of business opportunities that soldiers must compete for, and the overall market performance next year is worth looking forward to.